Free tool
Expectancy Calculator
See what a trade is worth on average, from your win rate and your average win and loss. Then see the win rate at which those sizes break even.
Your figures
These start as made-up figures. Type your own.
Everything you type stays in your browser.
Result
Expectancy per trade
+0.35R
- Break-even win rate
- 33.3%
- Loss rate
- 55.0%
At a win rate of 40.0% with the same sizes, expectancy is +0.20R.
How it is calculated
(0.45 × 2.00) − (0.55 × 1.00) − 0.00 = +0.35R
Arithmetic on your own figures, and no advice on any trade.
The same sizes at different win rates
Made-up inputs: a 2R average win and a 1R average loss, with no cost.
| Win rate | Expectancy per trade |
|---|---|
| 30% | −0.10R |
| 35% | +0.05R |
| 40% | +0.20R |
| 45% | +0.35R |
| 50% | +0.50R |
Expectancy calculator: common questions
What is expectancy in trading?
The average result per trade, from how often you win and how large your wins and losses are. Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss) − cost per trade. A 45% win rate, a 2R average win and a 1R average loss work out at 0.35R per trade.
What is a break-even win rate?
The win rate at which expectancy is exactly zero for your sizes. It is (average loss + cost) ÷ (average win + average loss). With a 2R win and a 1R loss it is 33.3%. If the cost is as large as the win, no win rate breaks even.
Should the figures be in R or in money?
Either works, as long as all of them use the same unit. R compares trades of different sizes. Money shows the amount, in whatever currency you typed it.
Where do I get these figures?
From your own past trades, on any platform or broker: a statement, a spreadsheet or a journal. Count the wins, then average the wins and the losses separately.
Does a positive expectancy mean the next trades will make money?
No. It describes the figures you typed. Past results do not say what comes next, and a small number of trades can mislead. It is arithmetic, not advice.
All questions (pricing, the trial, copying and safety) are in the Help Centre. Still stuck? Email support@trepeat.com.
Running more than one account?
Repeat a trade across them, each sized from its own equity.
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